Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-21 73094.659903 77254.811424 81419.989630 85900.084864 90579.602732 95320.145948 100482.501002
2025-12-28 66793.183485 73163.772693 79724.548150 86976.819085 94759.374041 102850.754825 111889.757329
2026-01-04 62257.529571 70155.723260 78472.554308 87863.864852 98154.039540 109066.554762 121494.287614
2026-01-11 58595.078289 67625.935873 77314.570493 88450.507905 100863.792175 114242.826302 129719.748506
2026-01-18 55319.660042 65211.154125 75999.106381 88592.329187 102841.154666 118414.624829 136673.159190
2026-01-25 52587.988723 63189.728768 74925.044827 88815.724211 104742.714685 122366.802239 143274.481841
2026-02-01 50025.465420 61191.602791 73722.825187 88746.677962 106183.901553 125697.665233 149095.819701
2026-02-08 48209.203739 59941.489430 73274.593385 89446.871416 108424.637511 129878.598954 155850.483004
2026-02-15 46168.584562 58317.219280 72291.525620 89431.424928 109756.627832 132955.630901 161294.991134
2026-02-22 45009.212972 57674.944768 72404.858566 90654.177337 112499.832915 137649.550295 168620.363208
2026-03-01 43731.819852 56823.253316 72210.620926 91459.864682 114711.415532 141700.147162 175191.183238
2026-03-08 42091.900659 55457.147983 71333.093743 91384.904549 115822.573066 144417.709372 180169.435900
2026-03-15 40695.325754 54354.080807 70747.508796 91647.662440 117340.743065 147640.589946 185799.073909
2026-03-22 39957.092518 54041.898766 71107.886630 93052.259950 120242.310119 152535.296530 193470.876598
2026-03-29 39074.572689 53507.970743 71160.810718 94051.205503 122632.899885 156813.933511 200419.564986
2026-04-05 38077.368964 52786.981062 70944.806256 94685.415334 124553.659457 160515.211107 206677.835860
2026-04-12 36918.380783 51814.394456 70373.149461 94838.539111 125850.460290 163439.202017 211986.878171
2026-04-19 35862.764094 50938.990235 69891.483177 95075.443078 127229.674484 166453.606630 217410.929422
2026-04-26 34728.356331 49921.417812 69192.352606 95002.609175 128193.047402 168938.013269 222177.609636
2026-05-03 34001.349771 49420.164393 69139.490338 95742.886268 130178.263458 172696.672543 228546.453346
2026-05-10 32994.454053 48510.118585 68523.458317 95726.565439 131176.298951 175207.375391 233355.941551
2026-05-17 32571.867471 48376.359443 68916.156251 97019.115542 133858.169674 179852.274191 240878.420886
2026-05-24 31993.392273 48009.013228 68982.622971 97870.696453 135964.893293 183774.308709 247508.010109